Early April El Niño update

#1

The latest NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) guidance has just refreshed. The latest update shows the current event maintaining strength through mid-2019.

NMME

In the sub-surface, a downwelling Kelvin wave has been moving across the equatorial Pacific since mid-to-late February. It will soon emerge in the east and could result in warming in the ocean surface in the eastern Pacific (closer to South America) in the coming weeks to month.

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It will be interesting to see if the current event, which has been more aligned with a central Pacific El Niño so far, will transition toward a more conventional eastern one with time. If so, impact(s) from the event would likely change.

On a separate note, a disturbed area of weather is forecast across the Southwest Pacific this weekend (13-14 Apr) into early next week. It could bring rain to New Caledonia and Vanuatu, both of which have shown below normal rainfall (according to TRMM) over the last month. More: https://twitter.com/pacific_rcc/status/1115438065592365056