Increase in tropical cyclone risk over the next few weeks

Pacific Meteorology Climate Services Help Desk
#1

Good day all.

Just passing along a bit of an update with regard to tropical cyclone risk in the Southwest Pacific over the next few weeks. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to stand over the west Pacific through mid-February. The MJO is a pulse of cloud and rainfall that moves around the global tropics every 30-60 days.

This may provide the forcing needed to generate tropical cyclone(s). Weather models have hinted at the potential as early as next week (week of 11 Feb). Remain vigilant in your forecasting efforts.

A loop of forecast pressure anomalies during the next 15 days: https://i.imgur.com/pvfnEnx.mp4.

Regards,

Ben

#2

Thanks Ben and I agree with you the on strong pulse of MJO currently in the Pacific. I have looked through some models and there is potential for TC genesis now to 16 February in our region.

Phil